Welcome to The Ballgorithm

Your daily fantasy cheat sheet for finding the defensive mismatches, and giving your lineup a little more math than hope.
Play, Fight, Win.
Good luck and have fun.
Trend-adjusted historical priors blended with the latest available current-season data • Higher matchup percentile = softer opponent for that position
League-wide player & defense percentiles
Independent of the matchup selected above. Filter the player pool by season, week, game and position.
Player Pos Team Opponent Player %ile Defense %ile Defensive prior Current def Index Combined rank Actual PPR Realized rank Rank accuracy Recent PPR PPR volatility Start % Sit %
Methodology and weighting
Historical prior construction40% full-season performance + 60% each team/player's final 8 available games.
Recency blendHistorical prior performance is blended with the latest available current-season performance. Players without prior history use the current-season result.
Injury exclusionsPlayers listed as Out or Doubtful are removed from the player pool for their matching season and week before rankings and start/sit probabilities are calculated.
Defensive vulnerabilityPPR allowed 45%, opportunities allowed 20%, yards allowed 20%, EPA allowed 15%, calculated separately for QB/RB/WR/TE.
Player baselinePPR 45%, opportunities 25%, yards 20%, EPA 10%, percentile-ranked within position.
Final matchup score60% player baseline percentile + 40% opponent defensive vulnerability percentile, then re-ranked within position.
Interpretation90+ = elite profile, 80–89 = strong, 60–79 = above average. A high defensive percentile means the defense has been more permissive to that position.
Player %ileA player's percentile within their position based on PPR, opportunities, yards, and EPA.
Defense %ileHow permissive the opposing defense is to that position. Higher values indicate a softer matchup.
Defensive prior / current defThe opponent's defensive percentile from the historical prior and the latest available current-season data.
IndexThe matchup score before the final position-relative ranking: 60% player baseline and 40% defensive vulnerability.
Combined rankThe player's final percentile ranking within their position after combining player quality and matchup softness.
Recent PPRAverage PPR fantasy points per game over the player's recent available sample.
PPR volatilityThe player's recent PPR standard deviation. Lower values imply a steadier scoring profile.
Start % / Sit %Model-estimated probabilities that the player performs at a starter-quality level or falls short of it. They sum to 100%.
Top-6 combined %ileThe average combined rank percentile of the team's six highest ranked players.
Player bandsThe count of qualifying players on a team in the 90+, 80–89, 60–79, and below-60 combined-rank ranges.
Total / SpreadThe sportsbook projected game total and point spread for the selected matchup.
Qualifying playersThe number of players included in the current player pool after the model's eligibility and injury filters.