UP / SAME / DOWN model

Player direction predictions

Filter player direction predictions across every available week and inspect the historical validation behind each metric.

Historical holdout check

How the model has performed

These figures summarize prior-week predictions. Overall accuracy covers every validation row; the 70%+ rate covers only predictions where the model was highly confident.

All available weeks

Higher is better

Field definitions

Overall accuracyPercent of historical holdout predictions whose UP, SAME, or DOWN direction was correct.
70%+ confidence hit rateAccuracy among predictions where the model assigned at least 70% probability to its selected direction.
High-confidence predictionsThe number of historical predictions included in the 70%+ confidence calculation.
PreviousThe player's result in their most recent completed game before the prediction.
Avg L3The player's average result across up to the three most recent completed games before the predicted game. The target game is never included.
DirectionThe model's predicted change from the previous result: UP, SAME, or DOWN.
ConfidenceThe model's probability for its selected direction.
SupportWhether the prediction meets the 70% confidence threshold and the model's support criteria.
SignalsWhether the strongest matched empirical rule agrees with the model direction.

Prediction rows across available weeks

Click a row to see probability details and matched empirical rules.

PlayerMatchupMetricPreviousAvg L3DirectionConfidenceSupportSignals